过去四年的市场波动具有巨大的经济和政治影响

在过去的几年里，石油价格一直处于过山车状态，从2014年的高峰期开始暴跌，这对全球经济特别是石油生产国造成了巨大影响。

尽管全球贸易紧张局势的影响限制了价格上涨，但由于投资者对供应前景持谨慎态度，周一石油价格再次上涨。

全球石油采购的主要基准价格布伦特原油价格在早盘交易中上涨至每桶75.12美元，随后小幅回落。

过去两周石油价格几乎不间断地上涨，“部分原因是美国和中国之间的贸易紧张局势升温，而且对伊朗的制裁迫在眉睫已经开始限制来自该国的石油流动”，报道路透社。

上周，华盛顿与德黑兰之间日益增长的外交冲突导致伊朗总统哈桑·鲁哈尼威胁通过霍尔木兹海峡封锁石油运输，切断了世界上最重要的石油供应路线。

今天早些时候的上涨意味着石油价格已经接近其五年来的75.43美元的四年高位。今年年初，这一增长率接近20％，这主要得益于唐纳德特朗普承诺将美国从伊朗核协议中拉出来并重新制定对世界第三大石油出口国的制裁 - 将于下周一生效。

在特朗普政府施压降低油价的压力下，上个月石油输出国组织（欧佩克）投票决定每天增加产量70.8万桶，以保持油价稳定。

为什么2014年石油价格暴跌？

价格徘徊在70美元左右，与2014年6月布伦特原油价格达到每桶115美元的令人兴奋的日子相去甚远。

随后被称为2014年的大油价，当年6月至12月价格下跌约40％，并持续下跌，直至2015年初达到每桶36.05美元的低点。

罗伯特·萨缪尔森（Robert J Samuelson）在华盛顿邮报上写道，价格暴跌“主要反映出供应过多需求追逐”。

美国页岩油产量激增，自2008年以来每天增加350万桶，恰逢全球需求低于预期以及巴拉克•奥巴马（Barack Obama）对伊朗实施的美国经济制裁 - 所有这些都有助于推低价格。

这是因为即使供需平衡的微小变化也会导致价格的显着变化。

“适度的盈余和短缺可能引发令人眼花缭乱的价格波动，因为消费者的需求 - 在短期内 - 是僵化的，”萨缪尔森表示，“短缺导致供应争夺; 盈余导致价格暴跌以清除市场“。

油价波动会带来什么后果？

油价下跌标志着从生产者到消费者的大量财富转移，估计经济学家爱德华·亚德尼每年约1.5万亿美元。

萨缪尔森在2014年12月写道，“虽然全面影响是模糊的 - 部分是因为不清楚价格将在何处解决 - 可能的影响包括推动全球经济复苏缓慢以及包括尼日利亚，委内瑞拉在内的一些主要出口国的政治压力，俄罗斯和伊朗“。

石油价格暴跌的政治影响比委内瑞拉更为严重。

据路透社报道，由于缺乏对石油工业的投资，该国的产量自21世纪初以来减少了一半，达到每天150万桶。

加上油价下跌，尼古拉斯·马杜罗的社会主义政府被迫大幅削减公共支出，导致食品和医药等方面的巨大短缺。这反过来又引发了大规模的公众骚乱，并使该国处于内战的边缘。

在较小程度上，尼日利亚和俄罗斯近年来经历了类似的公共动荡。在这些国家，过度依赖石油收入严重打击了他们的经济。

福布斯的瓜拉夫夏尔马说，持续的高油价也可能对印度蓬勃发展的经济构成“重大风险” 。

“随着蓬勃发展的制造业，以服务业和科技产业为补充，印度经济在廉价油价的支撑下大幅上涨，布伦特原油在2015 - 16年油价暴跌期间一度低于每桶30美元的水平，”他写道，“但那时的原因是一个依赖进口的国家占其原油需求的82％。”

惠誉研究机构印度评级认为印度经济具有抵御和吸收油价冲击几个月的弹性，但如果油价在两到三个月内保持高位，它将“对所有主要宏观经济变量产生负面影响”如经常账户，货币，通货膨胀，利率，财政赤字，GDP增长和货币政策的实施“。

在更广泛的全球层面，也有人担心过去六个月的价格调整可能引发下一次经济衰退。

CNBC表示，“对于任何有市场历史学习的投资者而言，这不应该让人感到意外”，因为在过去的五次美国经济衰退之前，油价也会上涨。

未来该何去何从？

“财富”杂志表示，欧佩克在未来的削减中出现分歧，伊朗希望将原油价格维持在每桶60至65美元的水平，其巨大的区域竞争对手沙特阿拉伯的目标价为80美元。

这应该看到价格在短期内稳定在70美元左右。

能够打击供应并抬高价格的最大中期未知因素包括委内瑞拉政局不断恶化以及美国再次对伊朗实施制裁的影响。

俄罗斯石油部长亚历山大诺瓦克认为，制裁措施已将油价推高至每桶5美元至7美元不等。

美国有线电视新闻网称，这可能会影响每天100万桶的原油供应量。虽然预计包括印度，日本和韩国在内的一些美国盟友将效仿并切断伊朗，但如果欧盟和中国坚持协议并决定不重新实施制裁，这种影响可能会受到抑制。

与此同时，投资者“仍担心主要的欧佩克生产国沙特阿拉伯将增加产量以弥补委内瑞拉等国的损失”，彭博社说，“同时，人们担心中美之间正在发生的贸易冲突将会损害经济活动并伤害需求“。

原文

The price of oil has been on a roller-coaster ride over the past few years, plummeting from its 2014 peak before recovering – all with huge consequences for the global economy and especially oil-producing states.

The price of oil rose again on Monday as investors remained cautious over the supply outlook, although the fallout from global trade tensions limited price gains.

Brent Crude, the major benchmark price for purchases of oil worldwide, rose to $75.12 a barrel in early morning trading, before falling back slightly.

The oil price has been rallying almost uninterruptedly for the past two weeks, “in part as trade tensions between the United States and China have heated up, but also as looming sanctions on Iran have already started to curtail flows of oil from the country”, reports Reuters.

A growing diplomatic stand-off between Washington and Tehran last week led Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to threaten a blockade of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off the world’s most vital oil supply route.

Today’s early gains mean the price of oil is nearing its four-year high of $75.43, hit briefly in May. This represents an increase of nearly 20% on the start of the year, driven primarily by Donald Trump’s promise to pull the US out of the Iran nuclear deal and reimpose sanctions on the world’s third biggest oil exporter -  due to come into effect next Monday.

Amid pressure from the Trump administration to bring down oil prices, last month the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) voted to increase production by an extra 708,000 barrels per day in a bid to keep oil prices steady.

Why did the price of oil plummet in 2014?

With prices hovering around the $70 mark, it is a far cry from the heady days of June 2014 when Brent Crude hit $115 a barrel.

What followed became known as the Great Oil Bust of 2014, when prices dropped roughly 40% between June and December of that year, and continued to fall until they hit a low of just $36.05 a barrel in early 2015.

Robert J Samuelson writing in the Washington Post said the price collapse “mainly reflects too much supply chasing too little demand”.

Surging US shale oil production, which had increased by 3.5 million barrels a day from 2008, coincided with lower-than-expected global demand and the lifting of US economic sanctions against Iran by Barack Obama – all contributing to pushing down prices.

This is because even small shifts in the supply-demand balance can result in significant price changes.

“Modest surpluses and shortages can trigger dizzying price swings, because consumers’ needs - in the short run - are rigid,” said Samuelson, while “shortages cause a scramble for supply; surpluses produce price plunges to clear the market”.

What are the consequences of oil price fluctuations?

Declines in oil prices signal a massive transfer of wealth from producers to consumers, estimated at about $1.5trn annually by economist Edward Yardeni.

Writing in December 2014, Samuelson said that “although the full implications are hazy - in part because it’s unclear where prices will settle - likely effects include a boost to the sluggish global economic recovery and political strains for some major exporters, including Nigeria, Venezuela, Russia and Iran”.

Nowhere has the political impact of plummeting oil prices been more acute than in Venezuela.

According to Reuters, the country’s output has halved since the early 2000s to 1.5 million barrels per day, hit by a lack of investment in the oil industry.

Combined with falling oil prices, the socialist government of Nicolas Maduro has been forced to dramatically cut public spending, leading to huge shortages in the likes of food and medicine. This in turn has provoked mass public unrest and brought the country to the brink of civil war.

To a lesser extent, Nigeria and Russia have experienced a similar level of public upheaval in recent years. In these countries, an over-reliance on oil revenue has hit their economies hard.

Continued high oil prices could also constitute a “major risk” to India’s burgeoning economy, says Guarav Sharma in Forbes.

“With its booming manufacturing industries, supplemented by services and technology industries, the Indian economy swelled on the back of cheap oil prices with Brent posting sub-$30 per barrel levels at one point during the recent oil price slump of 2015-16,” he writes, “but that was then for a country reliant on imports for 82% of its crude oil needs.”

Fitch-owned research outfit India Ratings opined that the Indian economy has the resilience to withstand and absorb the oil price shocks for a few months, but if oil prices remain high beyond two to three months, it will “adversely impact all the major macroeconomic variables such as current account, currency, inflation, interest rate, fiscal deficit, GDP growth and conduct of monetary policy”.

On a wider global level there are also concerns the price correction of the past six months could spark the next economic downturn.

CNBC says “this should not come as a surprise for any investor who is a student of market history” given the last five US recessions were also preceded by a rise in oil prices.

What does the future hold?

Opec appears split on future cuts, says Fortune, with Iran wanting to see crude prices held at $60-$65 a barrel and its great regional rival, Saudi Arabia, aiming for $80.

This should see prices stabilise in the short-term around the $70 mark.

The biggest medium-term unknowns which could hit supply and drive up prices include the deteriorating political situation in Venezuela and the impact of renewed US sanctions on Iran.

Russia’s oil minister Alexander Novak believes that the sanctions have already pushed up oil prices by anywhere from $5 to $7 per barrel.

CNN Money says this could affect as many as one million barrels per day of crude supply. Although some American allies, including India, Japan and South Korea, are expected to follow suit and cut off Iran, the effect could be tempered if the EU and China stick to the agreement and decide not to reimpose sanctions.

Investors, meanwhile, “remain concerned that key Opec producer Saudi Arabia will increase output to make up for losses from countries such as Venezuela”, says Bloomberg, while “the same time, there are fears that ongoing trade conflicts between the U.S. and China will damage economic activity and hurt demand”.

（本文转自Jean-Sebastien Evrard，如有版权问题，请联系小编）